The oscar nominations were announced today, and despite making some changes (10 Best picture nominees, a change that was needed last year, as I suspected, the list this year would end up looking padded) it is a pretty unsurprising and dull list.
Starting from the bottom, with Supporting Actress: Two nominations for Up in the Air, which as anyone with an ounce of schooling in Academy politics knows, cancel each other out. Were there only one nominee for Up in the Air, it wouldn't matter. Mo'Nique has this category so deservedly locked up that Up in the Air's double nomination seems like a ploy to pad their nomination count (just visualize the DVD case of the film, in big block letters across the top "Nominated for 6 Academy Awards").
Supporting Actor is another locked category, Christoph Waltz's performance in Inglorious Basterds, particularly in the opening sequence, outshines his fellow nominees so much you'd have to wonder if anyone in the Academy voted for anyone else.
Leading Actress will surely go to Gabourey Sibide, although it would be humorous to see the Academy make the same mistake twice in awarding Meryl Streep the prize for an inferior period performance over a more deserving up and coming black woman in a role charged with racial issues (Color Purple vs. Out of Africa anybody?)
Actor in a leading role, finally a chance for some actual speculation. George Clooney's performance in Up in the Air is a strong contender, he brings some crucial levity to the film, and our preconceived notions of him as a smooth operator are used perfectly to develop a pivotal plot point. Morgan Freeman...just look at him, and then look at a picture of Nelson Mandella, is it the best performance if you just look exactly like the person you're supposed to portray? I think I can safely rule out Colin Firth's performance, usually when the actor's performance is the only good thing about the film, the actor doesn't win, this is the case with Firth. Jeff Bridges as broken down country singer, if it wasn't for the fact that this movie feels like a fictional biopic, I'd say he might bring home the gold, for that reason alone, I think he'll miss out, sorry Dude. Jeremy Renner is the dark horse here, The Hurt Locker revolves around his character, and he is something of an enigma, one strength of this film is the fact that the characters are alien to us, and Renner's performance strikes the perfect balance of both endearing us to him, and causing us to question his sanity. This one is really close, and if Sharlto Copley had been nominated instead of Morgan Freeman, I think it'd be even closer, between Jeff Bridges, George Clooney, and Jeremy Renner, I'd have to go with Renner.
Best Picture, with an expanded 10 nominees this year, you would think predictions would become more difficult. However, there are still really only five nominees on the list that have a shot. The big five are Avatar, Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker, Precious, and Inglorious Basterds. I'm kind of excited about this category this year, they threw District 9 a bone, which I can appreciate, but it's not going to win. The same goes for Up (which is rather confusingly double nominated, and the main reason it feels like the Best Picture list is padded). A Serious Man, An Education, and The Blind Side all seem to cancel each other out, as Precious is by far the most significant drama this year (I wonder if the Coen's have earned a Meryl Streep card, good for obligatory nominations whenever your work rises above mediocrity).
Best Animated film will hopefully go to Wes Anderson, as The Fantastic Mr. Fox represents some actual innovation in animated film. However, given Up's throwaway nomination in the Best Picture category, this is a highly probably win for Pixar.
The remaining technical awards serve to pad the award totals of the "big" films or to showcase films that didn't get enough attention. All in all, it's another safe year for the Oscars, which won't be aided by the lengthy running time of the actual ceremony.
